Onset of North East Monsoon & Synoptic Analysis
When you wake up today morning, the much awaited North East Monsoon rain bands would have touched Chennai coast from NE and with an Upper Air Circulation seen close to TN coast, the bands will be keep on coming for next two days with morning being peak time for rains with short brisk spells continuing with breaks. The below wind pattern should help you to understand the onset pattern this year along with the synoptic systems in Bay, Arabian Sea, Indian Peninsula and West Pacific.
KTC falls in Dryline – Wetline winds converging zone
Not only that there is a dryline and wetline winds meeting is taking place along with the onset. These type of rains are totally un-predictable, if we fall over the dry area influence we will miss the rains, if we meet exactly over the converging area, there will semma rains. So this adds to the excitement of the onset. Lets hope we fall in the moist converging side and have a good start to monsoon.
Lets see where the rains will happen in Tamil Nadu in the next two days
The rains will be slow on and off to start with as the UAC is little far away in Sea from TN coast. But on 29th October is moving much closer, so an increased rainfall activity can been seen on 29th. On 28th the rains can bee seen in North TN coast and slowly extending down to Central TN coastal belts of Delta. Chennai, Tiruvallur, Villupuram, Pondy will all get onset 1st in the state. Remember in most cases, night to mornings rains will be along coast, as we move into day time the winds will move into Land giving sharp showers to districts which are slightly interior from coast.
Down south the scenario its completely different, they are far away from the dryline zone, a trough from Arabian sea extends to South TN and the winds from the UAC in Bay create LWD kind of scenario with an temp ciruclation seen in Lakshwadeep Sea. Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli, Tenkasi, Virudhunagar, Thoothukudi, Theni and Madurai all fall in this zone.